Tuesday, January 31, 2006

This year is a crucial point in history.

NK has always been a satellite of China, ever since the fall of USSR. Hu can order KJI around and Hu is calling shots about (now debunked?) six-party talks. KJI is just a puppet.

Actually this year is very interesting time for China-Korea-Japan relationship. China, after using NK nukes as trading chips against Taiwan acquisition, may try using NK in a new venture.
KJI visited China this year with military generals. This is significant move. And, I am afraid that the purpose of visit was not economic change as many media have reported.

China may start using NK to attack Japan!

The following events may take place.
1) NK will be very belligerent toward Japan, attacking Japanese boats and even shooting some missiles.
2) The US will be put into an awkward position. To defend Japan, the US may have to start a war against NK. However, this will not pass in the Congress. Koizumi’s Yasukuni visits will be a convenient excuse for the US not to commit troop. The US will just take the issue to the UN.
3) When NK attacks heighten and the Japanese require the US to live up to the mutual defense treaty, the US will reluctantly have to commit troops.
4) This is where the most intriguing events will follow. South Koreans will ask the US to leave the country! SK will join NK and China alliance.
China wants this consequence and may activate this scenario.

The US will pull out of Korea and just supply the Japanese Self-Defense Corps some missles to fight the war against NKs. As soon as the US pulls out of SK, NK ends hostilities against Japan, with China working as the peacemaker.

Five years later, the Unified Korea attacks Japan under China’s orders. The US is nowhere to be found.

5 Comments:

At 7:29 AM, Blogger Terri said...

I followed your link here from marmot.

I have some question for you that I hope you take very seriously. I'm not at all being facetious.

Do you believe in every single word in the Bible? Is it why you quoted Revelations? Is it why you believe in intelligent design? Do you believe that Adam and Eve are two people that actually existed? Do you believe in any form of evolution (e.g., when a virus evolves)?

I really hope you take the time to answer. Thanks.

 
At 7:15 AM, Blogger baduk said...

Yes, I believe in two persons, Adam and Eve. I also believe the whole world was created in 24x7=168 hours.

Of course, when I meet my Savior, he may tell me it was not so. Then, I will adjust my opinion then. But, not before!

Don't you think that it is incredible that the order of creation is exactly correct as modern science predicts. This by itself is a proof that Bible should be taken seriously.

I do belive in variation within species and overlap between closely related species. But, just stretching to ad infinitum and saying that every creatures came from one master cell? I disagree.

 
At 6:19 AM, Blogger yute said...

If NK is China's puppet, then the best SK can hope for is that Korea remain permanently divided for the indefinite future. Eventual unification (should that happen) will ultimately be determined by great power rivalry - in this case, between China and the US.

Even though China and the US will be the ones mostly calling the shots, SK can still play an important supporting role in its re-unification by basically just being pro-US, anti-communist, and, amidst all this, somehow assuring China that SK has no harmful intentions against the former.

This is really SK's only choice if it ever hopes to unify the country on its own terms. SK has to either abandon or, at the very least, drastically change its so-called "sunshine policy" by getting really tough with NK. It has to start making its financial and economic aid conditional upon NK improving its dismal human rights situation. SK has to really hit NK hard on issues like its concentration camps, kidnapped SK citizens, etc. If NK refuses to cooperate, then SK should just abandon its aid, and revert to Cold War mentality. In a nutshell, SK - whether using "sunshine policy" or not - has to work towards undermining and eventually destroying the NK regime.

That, I think, is the best role it can play in unification. The more heat it puts on NK, the more it helps the US to put the heat on China. A weakened China that is kept off balance by the US is NE Asia's best hope for peace and prosperity.

And, ultimately, the greater SK's chances of eventually re-unifying the country on terms favorable to SK.

 
At 12:12 PM, Blogger yute said...

With China waiting to dominate the entire Korean peninsula to make war with Japan, how can a free, independent, unified Korea possibly exist without US troops permanently stationed on the peninsula? It's hard to imagine otherwise. For one thing, China would have to be in such a weakened state to accept a pro-US, unified Korea next door.

The fact is, the present division of the Korean peninsula is exactly what's keeping SK prosperous and free of Chinese domination today. Maybe the US should bring their nukes back into SK.

Maybe US and China would have to cut a deal, i.e., no US troops in unified Korea, but US reserves itself the right to defend Korea anyway if Korea is attacked. Korea then might become like Finland was towards the USSR during the Cold War, i.e., independent and officially neutral, but with a foreign policy tilted towards China nevertheless. US might then place all its troops in Japan instead.

A true SK statesman would advocate Japan getting rid of Article 9, and finally having a standing army. Now that's balls. Even more ballsy would be if SK supported Japan's building and possessing nuclear weapons, to be pointed at China. Then there would be a Japan-US alliance to restrain China, with independent, unified (and officially neutral) Korea tilting either way. I think this is pretty much what the US wants anyway.

 
At 12:13 AM, Blogger yute said...

baduk,

if North Korea is a puppet of China, and China is un-willing to allow Korea to be re-unified under the present South Korean system, then how can Korean re-unification take place at all?

And if war does break out between China and Japan (as you say it will), then how is it possible for a re-unified, capitalist, pro-US Korea to emerge from the aftermath?

 

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